Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Why is the AUD declining?

In the last 30 days the AUD has declined against the USD by about 10.67% from $1.0636 to approx $0.95. Further, the AUD has declined by 9.3% against the Yen, 9% against the Yuan, 5.38% against the Pound and 3.5% against the EURO. It appears that certain proprietory traders must be making a motza out of this decline, because the fundamentals for such a decline simply do not add up. Business Journalists justify the declining AUD by arguing that it has been caused by the Greek debt crisis, declining natural resources and a rumour that the RBA might cut interest rates. But these arguments simply fail to make any funadamental economic sense, when analysed in respect to the global predicament in the US and Europe. In fact Australia is a diversified and modern economy and produces much more than mere iron ore. Moereover, Australia has a growing GDP, whereas the rest of the world does not. So why then is the AUD being punished? The answer is that the market has been indulging in PURE SPECULATION. Unfortunately there is a ridiculous perception that the AUD is completely related to the price of natural resources and that the failure of Greece is going to lead to economic armagedon and thus lower prices of iron ore and cause the AUD to reduce to X. The fact of the matter is that, if Greece defaults, there will be many other dominoes that will fall flat before Australia. Economists doubt that even if Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy fail that it will cause China's demand for natural resources to decline below growth on the year proceeding. The fact of the matter is that Australia will be exporting more goods and services to Asia than the year prior, even if America and Europe slumps into depression. So this argument should not be a question of why the AUD is failing, but rather why its not gaining against the rest due to the inherently bad economies in the EU and USA. Perhaps we should be arguing about why the USD and EURO are trading at such an over inflated level given their domestic predicaments?

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